Hierarchical dynamic modeling of outbreaks of mountain pine beetle using partial differential equations

نویسندگان

  • Yanbing Zheng
  • Brian H. Aukema
  • B. H. AUKEMA
چکیده

In this article, we develop spatial–temporal generalized linear mixed models for spatial–temporal binary data observedon a spatial lattice and repeatedly over discrete timepoints. To account for spatial and temporal dependence, we introduce a spatial–temporal random effect in the link function and model by a diffusion–convection dynamic model. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for statistical inference and devise Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for computation. We illustrate the methodology by an example of outbreaks of mountain pine beetle on theChilcotin Plateau ofBritishColumbia, Canada.We examine the effect of environmental factorswhile accounting for the potential spatial and temporal dependence. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Separating Trends in Whitebark Pine Radial Growth Related to Climate and Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks in the Northern Rocky Mountains, USA

Drought and mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) outbreaks have affected millions of hectares of high-elevation conifer forests in the Northern Rocky Mountains during the past century. Little research has examined the distinction between mountain pine beetle outbreaks and climatic influence on radial growth in endangered whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) ecosystems. We...

متن کامل

A Dynamic Bioeconomic Analysis of Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemics

In this paper we develop a bioeconomic model of timber harvesting that includes dynamic interactions between mountain pine beetle (MPB) and a lodgepole pine forest with a disaggregated size structure. The model is used to investigate the consequences of alternative public management strategies on forest dynamics in the presence of MPB outbreaks. Management practices similar to those commonly pr...

متن کامل

Mathematical elements of attack risk analysis for mountain pine beetles.

Three different mathematical approaches are combined to develop a spatial framework in which risk of mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack on individual hosts may be assessed. A density-based partial differential equation model describes the dispersal and focusing behavior of MPB. A local projection onto a system of ordinary differential equations predicts the consequences of the density equations ...

متن کامل

Climate influences on whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

Extensive mortality of whitebark pine, beginning in the early to mid-2000s, occurred in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) of the western USA, primarily from mountain pine beetle but also from other threats such as white pine blister rust. The climatic drivers of this recent mortality and the potential for future whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle are not well understood, y...

متن کامل

Impact of mountain pine beetle outbreaks on forest albedo and radiative forcing, as derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, Rocky Mountains, USA

[1] Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks in North America are widespread and have potentially large-scale impacts on albedo and associated radiative forcing. Mountain pine beetle outbreaks in Colorado and southern Wyoming have resulted in persistent and significant increases in both winter albedo (change peaked 10 years post outbreak at 0.06 ± 0.01 and 0.05 ± 0.01, in lodgep...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2010